Historical Evolution of African Economic Integration

• 1963: Formation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) to promote cooperation among newly independent African states.
• 1980 Lagos Plan of Action: Urged reduction of dependence on Western economies and strengthening of intra-African trade.
• 2002: OAU replaced by the African Union, prioritising continent-wide economic integration.
• 2012: AU Summit decided to establish a Continental Free Trade Area by 2017.
• 2015: Negotiations for AfCFTA formally launched.
• 2018: Agreement adopted in Kigali and opened for signatures.
• 2019: Agreement entered into force on 30 May 2019.

Core Challenges Facing AfCFTA

• Institutional Weakness: The African Union has struggled with major political and security issues, decolonisation, underdevelopment, terrorism, and instability from the Arab Spring.
• Fragmented Regional Blocs: Overlapping memberships in Africa’s eight Regional Economic Communities (RECs) make standardisation, implementation and enforcement difficult.
• Low Industrial Base:
  • Around 75% of Africa’s external exports are extractives like oil and minerals.
  • Only 15% of African trade is intra-continental, compared to 58% in Asia and 67% in Europe.
  • Makes the continent vulnerable to global commodity price swings.
• Unfavourable Global Environment:
  • Protectionism rising due to US–China trade tensions, Brexit and WTO crises.
  • Global trade projected to grow only 2.6% in 2019.
  • Africa contributes just 3% to world trade, making AfCFTA’s success harder in an anti-globalisation phase.

Prospects and Opportunities

• Rising Chinese and Indian investments increase the logic of a unified African market and collective economic strength.
• UN projections show sub-Saharan Africa contributing nearly half of global population growth by 2050, with its population doubling to almost 2 billion, expanding consumer markets.
• With China slowly shifting away from export-dependent growth, Africa is seen as a potential manufacturing hub of the developing world.
• For India, AfCFTA opens strategic possibilities:
  • Africa already represents nearly $70 billion in annual merchandise trade with India.
  • Africa remains a strong market for Indian food products, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods and IT/ITES services.
  • Large Indian diaspora (over 3 million people) strengthens socio-economic links.
  • India can assist the AU in designing frameworks for external tariffs, competition laws, IPR regimes and mobility rules.
  • Possibility of a future India–Africa Free Trade Agreement once AfCFTA stabilises.

Conclusion

• Colonial trading patterns damaged Africa’s internal economic networks, making countries more connected to former colonial powers than to each other; AfCFTA aims to correct this historical distortion.
• At a time when global trade is slowing and protectionism is rising, African nations are choosing deeper integration to ensure long-term growth and self-reliance.
• For India, anticipating the wide-ranging impact of AfCFTA and adopting a proactive Africa strategy will be essential to leveraging new economic and strategic opportunities.