Economic Survey 2025-26: Growth Outlook
• FY26 (2025-26): Medium-term growth forecast raised to 7%
• FY27 (2026-27): Growth projected between 6.8% – 7.2%
Three global scenarios for 2026
Scenario 1 – Best case (40–45%)
• Business as usual
• Global tensions ease somewhat
• Volatility persists
• Government interventions stabilise markets
Scenario 2 – Multipolar breakdown (40–45%)
• Geopolitical rifts persist
• Trade conflicts and counter-sanctions
• Supply-chain realignments
• Prolonged uncertainty
Scenario 3 – Worst case (10–20%)
• Major global correction, especially in AI-infrastructure investments
• Spike in risk aversion
• Macro fallout worse than the 2008 crisis



