Context: Global Decline in Fertility Rates
Fertility rates are declining across the world, including India, pushing many countries below the replacement level required for long-term population stability.
Key Terms
- Average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.
Replacement Level Fertility
- Average number of children needed per woman to replace parents and maintain a stable population.
- Usually taken as 2.1 children per woman.
Global Scenario
World TFR
- 4.68 in 1960
- 2.18 in 2024
Major Drivers
- Urbanisation
- Higher female education
- Workforce participation
- Delayed marriages
- Contraception access
- Rising cost of living
Concerns
- Ageing population
- Labour shortages
- Rising pension burden
- Rising healthcare burden
Indian Scenario
India’s TFR
- 5.9 in 1960
- 2.0 in 2024
- This is below replacement level.
NFHS-6, 2023–24
Only six States remain at or above replacement level:
- Bihar — 2.7
- Uttar Pradesh — 2.2
- Meghalaya — 2.2
- Jharkhand — 2.2
- Madhya Pradesh — 2.1
- Rajasthan — 2.1
Elderly Population Projection
By 2050, India’s elderly population is projected at:
- 20.8%
- Around 34.7 crore
