Context: Super El Niño Impact India
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA, confirmed El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and estimated a 63% probability of it strengthening into a strong or “super” event, raising concerns over India’s southwest monsoon.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation
ENSO is an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon over the equatorial Pacific Ocean that affects global weather and monsoons.
El Niño
El Niño refers to abnormal warming of Sea Surface Temperature in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Impact
- Weakens trade winds.
- Generally weakens the Indian monsoon.
- Can lead to deficient rainfall and drought-like conditions.
La Niña
La Niña refers to abnormal cooling of Sea Surface Temperature in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Impact
- Strengthens trade winds.
- Generally strengthens the Indian monsoon.
- Can lead to above-normal rainfall and floods.
IMD Classification Based on SST Anomaly
Weak El Niño
- +0.5°C to less than +1°C
Moderate El Niño
- +1°C to less than +1.5°C
Strong El Niño
- +1.5°C to less than +2°C
Very Strong / Super El Niño
- 2°C or above
Impact on India
El Niño
- Around 60% of El Niño years are associated with deficient monsoon rainfall.
- Since 1950, nearly 15 El Niño years recorded below-normal rainfall.
- Around 10 El Niño years resulted in drought conditions.
Associated Effects
- Delayed monsoon onset
- Prolonged dry spells
- Lower agricultural output
- Food inflation
- Water stress
Major Drought Years Linked to El Niño
- 1972
- 1982
- 2009
- 2015
La Niña
Generally linked with:
- Above-normal monsoon rainfall
- Higher agricultural output
- Groundwater recharge
- Better reservoir storage
- Higher flood risk in some regions
Indian Ocean Dipole
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole can offset El Niño effects.
Example:
- 1997–98 El Niño did not significantly weaken India’s monsoon.
Climate Change Link
Warmer oceans may intensify future El Niño events and amplify impacts on:
- Agriculture
- Water security
- Food prices
- Disaster risks
