NEWS 1
GS2 • International Relations; GS3 • Security
Source: The Tribune
Why It's Getting Harder to End Wars
Context: The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 65 state-involved armed conflicts in 2025, including Russia-Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan; 13 reached the level of war, highlighting the growing difficulty of achieving durable peace.
Geopolitical Rivalry Prolongs Conflicts
Major-power & proxy dynamics
Ukraine is linked to the wider Russia-US/NATO strategic rivalry; external support lets weaker parties keep fighting rather than negotiate; West Asian conflicts multiply interests across Iran, Israel, the US and armed groups.
Ukraine is linked to the wider Russia-US/NATO strategic rivalry; external support lets weaker parties keep fighting rather than negotiate; West Asian conflicts multiply interests across Iran, Israel, the US and armed groups.
Institutional deadlock
Rival positions among UN Security Council permanent members can obstruct collective action; states may prefer weakening an adversary over accepting an early compromise.
Rival positions among UN Security Council permanent members can obstruct collective action; states may prefer weakening an adversary over accepting an early compromise.
Technology Makes Decisive Victory Difficult
New capabilities
Cheap drones (Ukraine) can damage high-value assets; deep-strike capability lets both sides hit far behind frontlines without territorial gains; non-state actors like the Houthis use low-cost missiles/drones against stronger militaries.
Cheap drones (Ukraine) can damage high-value assets; deep-strike capability lets both sides hit far behind frontlines without territorial gains; non-state actors like the Houthis use low-cost missiles/drones against stronger militaries.
Attrition & deterrence
Prolonged access to weapons/manpower prevents quick victory; nuclear deterrence makes complete military defeat of a nuclear-armed opponent extremely risky.
Prolonged access to weapons/manpower prevents quick victory; nuclear deterrence makes complete military defeat of a nuclear-armed opponent extremely risky.
Information Warfare Shrinks Space for Compromise
Narrative pressures
Competing victory narratives (Ukraine) make concessions politically harder; social-media polarisation (Gaza) rapidly intensifies public pressure; disinformation and AI-generated content blur genuine vs fabricated claims.
Competing victory narratives (Ukraine) make concessions politically harder; social-media polarisation (Gaza) rapidly intensifies public pressure; disinformation and AI-generated content blur genuine vs fabricated claims.
Political cost
Leaders fear compromise being portrayed as weakness or betrayal, further narrowing room for negotiation.
Leaders fear compromise being portrayed as weakness or betrayal, further narrowing room for negotiation.
What Is Needed to End Wars?
Key requirements
Realistic, achievable political objectives; preserved negotiation space; addressing both sides' core security concerns; an acceptable, face-saving exit; using military pressure to create leverage for diplomacy, not as an end in itself.
Realistic, achievable political objectives; preserved negotiation space; addressing both sides' core security concerns; an acceptable, face-saving exit; using military pressure to create leverage for diplomacy, not as an end in itself.
Key Takeaway: The article's real insight is that ending wars has gotten structurally harder on three fronts at once — rival great powers block UN action, cheap drones and nuclear deterrence make decisive victory nearly impossible, and social media/AI-driven narratives make any compromise look like defeat.
Prelims Practice MCQ
+2 correct • −0.66 wrongConsider the following statements:
1. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program recorded 65 state-involved armed conflicts in 2025.
2. Nuclear deterrence is identified as a factor that makes complete military defeat of a nuclear-armed opponent less risky.
3. Non-state actors such as the Houthis have used low-cost missiles and drones to challenge stronger militaries.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Explanation: Statements 1 and 3 are correct. Statement 2 is incorrect — nuclear deterrence makes complete military defeat MORE risky, not less.
UPSC Mains Question
10 Marks • 150 WordsDiscuss the factors that are making it increasingly difficult to achieve durable peace and end wars in the contemporary international system.
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Use after attempting the Mains answer
- Cite the UCDP's exact 2025 figures — 65 state-involved conflicts, 13 reaching the level of war — for quantitative precision.
- Organise the answer around three distinct forces — geopolitical rivalry, technology, information warfare — rather than a single generic cause.
- Name specific examples precisely — Ukraine (drones, victory narratives), Gaza (social-media polarisation), Houthis (low-cost asymmetric capability).
- State the nuclear-deterrence point correctly: it constrains complete victory, making stalemates more likely, not decisive wins.
- List the Way Forward requirements — realistic objectives, negotiation space, core interests, face-saving exit, diplomacy-after-force — individually.
