Total Fertility Rate Decline Across the World: Causes and Implications

Context: Global Decline in Fertility Rates
Fertility rates are declining across the world, including India, pushing many countries below the replacement level required for long-term population stability.

Key Terms

Total Fertility Rate

  • Average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.

Replacement Level Fertility

  • Average number of children needed per woman to replace parents and maintain a stable population.
  • Usually taken as 2.1 children per woman.

Global Scenario

World TFR

  • 4.68 in 1960
  • 2.18 in 2024

Major Drivers

  • Urbanisation
  • Higher female education
  • Workforce participation
  • Delayed marriages
  • Contraception access
  • Rising cost of living

Concerns

  • Ageing population
  • Labour shortages
  • Rising pension burden
  • Rising healthcare burden

Indian Scenario

India’s TFR

  • 5.9 in 1960
  • 2.0 in 2024
  • This is below replacement level.

NFHS-6, 2023–24

Only six States remain at or above replacement level:

  • Bihar — 2.7
  • Uttar Pradesh — 2.2
  • Meghalaya — 2.2
  • Jharkhand — 2.2
  • Madhya Pradesh — 2.1
  • Rajasthan — 2.1

Elderly Population Projection

By 2050, India’s elderly population is projected at:

  • 20.8%
  • Around 34.7 crore

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Total Fertility Rate Decline Across the World: Causes and Implications

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